I’m a fan of looking at life through the lens of context. Especially when we’re talking commodities. I think it’s very important to understand the price of items within the context of inflation. It makes for a much more level playing field. So with that, I undertook to find some information about the price of real estate adjusted for inflation. I came up one better!
Yale economist Robert J Shiller created an index of American housing prices going back to 1890. It is based on sales prices of standard existing houses, not new construction, to track the value of housing as an investment over time. It presents housing values in consistent terms over 116 years, factoring out the effects of inflation.
Take a look at the chart and you’ll see that we are nearing normalcy. But, we’ve still got a ways to go.
I continually hear comparisons to the great depression with our current economic situation. Yet, when you look at the index, you notice that we’re not in a depression. No, we’re in a correction back to normal. The real key is that real estate is not an effective investment tool. With a 0.59% inflation adjusted return since 1890, and a 1.24% inflation adjusted return since 1950 (and that assumes you sold at the peak), you can easily tell it’s not near the huge windfall we experienced in the past 10 years.
I’m not saying don’t buy real estate. There are many other reasons to own a home. Yet, the buy it, hold it, and make a 50% return in a year days are long gone. I’d like to think that we’re approaching normal, and that the markets will begin to stabilize shortly. The important thing to remember is we won’t be in a depression when viewed contextually – we’ll merely be returning to normalcy.
The phrase “here today, gone tomorrow” is widely used, and the simple yet poignant importance of the saying is often overlooked. Today, I learned of the death of a man who was a brother and uncle to several of my friends. This man was 47, and passed away in a tragic car accident. He was simply driving along the road, when an oncoming semi jackknifed on icy road conditions. The trailer of semi came around and killed the man. He was pronounced dead at the scene of the accident. Through this accident, I learned of another man that died suddenly from a brain aneurism at the age of 34. It all got me thinking, and when I’m thinking I’m generally being challenged.
At times in my life, I hold back. Whether it’s a fear of rejection, no time, no energy, whatever, I sometimes look back on those moments in life and think about how they could have been different. Armed with my past experiences and the tragedies I learned of today, my body began to do a search. I was searching for an answer. A reconciliation with how fragile life really is.
This evening as I ran a few errands, my body was in full-out reconciliation mode. In fact, I had to turn the radio off because my inner voice was speaking so loudly that the white noise of life was becoming a distraction. With the lack of white noise, I entered windshield time – you know – me, God, and the windshield – so often characterized in my life by driving for thirty miles or more, looking around, and realizing I don’t recall much of, if any, of the drive.
As I worked through my windshield time, I kept being reminded about the fragility of life. The lack of a promise for tomorrow, or for that matter 10 minutes from now. I continued to be led back to an assortment of thoughts. Am I taking chances and leading a full life? Am I prepared to leave this world without notice? Am I leading a life that enriches those around me? Am I a good role model for those that look up to me? Am I accountable for my actions?
The more I thought, the more I came to the realization that I need to pay more than just lip service to the answers to my thoughts. Because I have no timeline, and no advance warning system as to when I’ll leave this world, I need to live life to the fullest. What will I do different? I’m not sure. But I do know by living my life in the context of an awareness of the fragility of life, I will be able to answer a definitive yes to the questions in the last paragraph!
In my last post, I talked about how investing in the stock market was a bad investment when viewed in the context of inflation. In the recent months, I’ve had opportunities to do some soul searching – real deep soul searching – about investing, and life.
Last year, I was invited by a friend and mentor to attend a charity golf tournament, dinner and auction. The event was a fundraiser for Northern Voices – a center for young children with hearing loss that enables students to communicate through the use of spoken language, and helps families prepare their children to reach their full potential.
My expectations for the day were pretty minimal – play a round of golf, have a few drinks, enjoy the company of friends, and head home unaffected by the day. Well, three out of four isn’t bad – is it? You see, I was affected by the day – in a deep and disturbing way. It wasn’t the deep part that scared me. No sir, it was the disturbing part that I struggled with for almost six months.
I am a product of a family that prides itself on hard work. In fact, I’m active in our family business and work hard – often times excessively. I also work for several other companies on a freelance basis. As a result, my free time is limited, and my financial resources exceed my expenses – resulting in some disposable income that I somehow seem to squander on assorted non-necessities.
Rewind six months to the charity golf tournament. After the tournament, there is a silent auction, dinner and live auction. Having attended many similar events, I’m pretty used to the “sales pitch” and assorted other means of getting into my checkbook. In fact, as the auctioneer for several benefits and similar events, I’m also quite accustomed to making the pitch. As a result, it’s a bit more difficult to get me to support a specific cause. So, I’m sitting at dinner and the program begins, and several children get up and talk about how the support of the individuals in the room have made an impact on their lives – how literally because of the support and activities at the center, they’ve been given the gift of hearing. I’m sure you can already guess how that played out with me. I was pretty much tearing up, and grabbing my checkbook at the same time.
For nearly six months, I reflected internally on that moment. Not so much about the cause but about the real impact it had on these children. The more I reflected the more disturbed I became with society and more specifically myself. I struggled inwardly for months about how I was choosing to live my life, and spend the resources entrusted to me.
About a month ago it came to me. When or how, I’m not sure. It just came to me. I realized that we as a society, and me specifically, work our butts off to make a dollar so that we can save a few cents of it to put on a pile for retirement (you already know my thoughts on the primary pile we’re encouraged to use), or worse haphazardly squander it away. That’s when it hit me. If each of us took the 10% we’re encouraged to save, and actually invested the funds into people that need the assistance, where would be as a society? I know, you already give at work to the United Way or Salvation Army, or give at church. I’m not talking about that kind of giving. I’m talking about giving directly to those in need – skip the red tape, the bureaucracy, the middle man – give it direct to those in need.
Armed with that information, I’ve been talking to friends and family about my realization – if we all stopped investing in trying to increase our pile and started investing in the lives of those in need, how much better off would society be? The good news is they all agree we’d be much better off. The bad news is I think it’s mostly lip service. In fact, several people said that’s great, I’ll take the extra from your pile. Argh, that’s not the point, and that’s not the intended recipient.
I’ve resolved that I’m going to make a difference going forward. I can’t always do 10%, and sometimes I can’t do anything. But I can avail myself to do something when I can afford to do it! And, forget about me giving funds to a large corporate charitable group. I want to see my efforts making a difference to the fullest extent possible. I’ll be supporting smaller organizations, families I know could use an extra $100 here and there, or individuals that could use a hand with a project or some food. It’s certainly the least I can do, and the payoff so much richer than a financial investment gone good. What are you doing?
